@Article{BalanESSBRONF:2017:ScFoSe,
author = "Balan, N. and Ebihara, Y. and Skoug, R. and Shiokawa, K. and
Batista, Inez Staciarini and Ram, S. Tulasi and Omura, Y. and
Nakamura, T. and Fok, M. C.",
affiliation = "{Kyoto University} and {Kyoto University} and {Los Alamos National
Laboratory} and {Nagoya University} and {Instituto Nacional de
Pesquisas Espaciais (INPE)} and {Indian Institute of Geomagnetism}
and {Kyoto University} and {National Institute of Polar Research}
and {NASA Goddard Space Flight Center}",
title = "A scheme for forecasting severe space weather",
journal = "Journal of Geophysical Research: Space Physics",
year = "2017",
volume = "122",
number = "3",
pages = "2824--2835",
month = "Mar.",
keywords = "severe space weather, CME front, CME shock, B-z southward,
impulsive action.",
abstract = "A scheme is suggested and tested for forecasting severe space
weather (SvSW) using solar wind velocity (V) and the north-south
component (B-z) of the interplanetary magnetic field (IMF)
measured using the ACE (Advanced Composition Explorer) satellite
from 1998 to 2016. SvSW has caused all known electric power
outages and telegraph system failures. Earlier SvSW events such as
the Carrington event of 1859, Quebec event of 1989 and an event in
1958 are included with information from the literature. Dst storms
are used as references to identify 89 major space weather events
(DstMin <=-100 nT) in 1998-2016. The coincidence of high coronal
mass ejection (CME) front (or CME shock) velocity Delta V (sudden
increase in V over the background by over 275km/s) and
sufficiently large B-z southward at the time of the Delta V
increase is associated with SvSW; and their product (Delta VxB(z))
is found to exhibit a large negative spike at the speed increase.
Such a product (Delta VxB(z)) exceeding a threshold seems suitable
for forecasting SvSW. However, the coincidence of high V (not
containing Delta V) and large B-z southward does not correspond to
SvSW, indicating the importance of the impulsive action of large
B-z southward and high Delta V coming through when they coincide.
The need for the coincidence is verified using the CRCM
(Comprehensive Ring Current Model), which produces extreme Dst
storms (<Dst(MP)> < -250 nT) characterizing SvSW when there is
coincidence. Plain Language Summary Severe space weather has been
known to affect the society by damaging satellite systems and
electric power grids. For example, a space weather of the type
that occurred in September 1859, if occurs at present times, can
cause very serious damages costing up to 1 to 2 trillion U.S.
dollars. It is therefore important to study space weather and
understand what determines the severity of space weather and
whether it can be forecasted and predicted. In this paper we show
that the coincidence of the speed of solar storms and southward
orientation of the north-south component of the interplanetary
magnetic field is responsible for severe space weather at the
Earth, and it can be forecasted by 35 min using the data from a
satellite that stays at 220 x radius of Earth away from the
Earth.",
doi = "10.1002/2016JA023853",
url = "http://dx.doi.org/10.1002/2016JA023853",
issn = "2169-9402",
language = "en",
targetfile = "balan_scheme.pdf",
urlaccessdate = "27 abr. 2024"
}